Up until a few decades ago, our visions of the future were largely—though by no means uniformly—glowingly positive. Science and technology would cure all the ills of humanity, leading to lives of fulfillment and opportunity for all.

vision [ˈvɪʒn]（出现1次）n.美景，远见卓识

uniformly [ˈjunəˌfɔrmli] adv.一致地

glowingly adv.白热地

ill （出现13次）[僻义] n.困难，苦恼

fulfillment [fʊlˈfɪlmənt] n.实现，完成

faith n.信心，信任

by no means（绝不）

直到几十年前，我们对于未来的展望基本上是——尽管绝不都是——极为乐观。科学和技术会解决人类的一切难题，使所有人都过上富有成就感与机遇的生活。

Now utopia has grown unfashionable, as we have gained a deeperappreciation of the range of threats facing us, from asteroid strike to epidemicflu to climate change. You might even be tempted to assume that humanity has little future to look forward to.

utopia [juːˈtoʊpiə] n.乌托邦

unfashionable [ʌnˈfæʃnəbl] adj,不坏逊的，过时的

appreciation [əˌpriːʃiˈeɪʃn]（出现7次）n.认识，理解

asteroid [ˈæstərɔɪd] n.小行星

epidemic [ˌepɪˈdemɪk]（出现7次）adj.流行的，传染性的；n.传染病

tempt [tempt]（出现3次）v.诱惑，怂恿

look forward to.（期盼）

be tempted to（禁不住）

gain an appreciation of（获得对...的认识）

如今，随着我们对自身面临的一系列威胁——从小行星撞击地球达到肆虐的流感，再到气候变化——有了更加深刻的认识，乌托邦式的幻想逐渐变得不再流行了。你甚至可能禁不住认为人类几乎没有未来可以期待。

But such gloominess is misplaced. The fossil record shows that many species have endured for millions of years—so why shouldn’t we? Take a broader look at our species’ place in the universe, and it becomes clear that we have an excellent chance of surviving for tens, if not hundreds, of thousands of years. Look up Homo sapiensin the “Red List” of threatened species of the international Union for the Concentration of Nature (IUCN), and you will read: “Listed as Least Concern as the species is very widely distributed, adaptable, currently increasing, and there are no major threats resulting in an overall population decline.”

gloominess n.悲观，沮丧

misplace [ˌmɪsˈpleɪs] v.放错位置

fossil [ˈfɑːsl]（出现1次）n.化石

endure [ɪnˈdʊr]（出现3次）v.持续，持久，忍耐

concentration [ˌkɑːnsnˈtreɪʃn]（出现7次）n.专注，专心

adaptable [əˈdæptəbl] adj.能适应的

result in（导致）

Homo sapiensin（智人）

have an excellent chance（大有希望）

然而，如此悲观实在没有必要。化石记录表明许多物种已经延续了数百万年之久。那么我们认了为何就不能呢？以更广阔的视野来审视我们合格物种在宇宙中的地位，你就会很清楚我们即使存活下来不了数十万年，起码再存活数万年是大有希望的。在世界自然保护联盟《濒危物种红色目录》上查阅“智人”这一条目，你会读到以下内容：“被列为无危物种”，因为该物种分布极广，适应性强，目前数目正在上升，且不存在导致其族群整体下降的重大威胁。

So what does our deep future hold? A growing number of researchers and organizations are now thinking seriously about that question. For example, the Long Now Foundation has as its flagship project a mechanical clock that is designed to still be marking time thousands of years hence.

flagship [ˈflæɡʃɪp] n.旗舰

mechanical [məˈkænɪkl]（出现7次）机械驱动的，机械般的

hence [hens]（出现8次）因为，今后，从此

mark time（计时）

那么，遥远的未来究竟会是何种景像呢？越来越多的研究者以及组织正在认真思考这个问题。比如，今日永存基金会将一台旨在千年之后仍然能够记录时间的机械时钟作为其旗舰项目。

Perhaps willfully, it may be easier to think about such lengthy timescales than about the more immediate future. The potential evolution of today’s technology, and its social consequences, is dazzlinglycomplicated, and it’s perhaps best left to science fiction writers and futurologists to explore the many possibilities we can envisage. That’s one reason why we havelaunched Arc, a new publication dedicated to the near future.

willfully ['wɪlfəlɪ] adv.任性固执地

timescale [ˈtaɪmskeɪl] n.时间跨度

evolution [ˌiːvəˈluːʃn]（出现23次）n.进化，演变

dazzlingly [ˈdæzəlɪŋli]（出现1次）adv.耀眼地

complicated [ˈkɑːmplɪkeɪtɪd]（出现4次）adj.复杂的，难懂的

fiction [ˈfɪkʃn]（出现3次）n.小说，虚构的事物

futurologist [ˌfjuːtʃəˈrɑːlədʒɪst] n.未来学家

envisage [ɪnˈvɪzɪdʒ]（出现1次）v.想象，设想，展望

launch [lɔːntʃ]（出现4次）v.发射，发动，创建

immediate future（不久的将来）

dedicated to（致力于）

或许有悖常理，思考如此长远的时间跨度比思考近期未来更为容易。当代技术可能会有的发展及其社会影响复杂得令人晕眩，或许最好的办法是将我们能够想象到的各种可能性留给科幻小说家和未来学家去探索。这正是我们创建《弧》这样一本致力于研究近期未来的新刊物的原因之一。

But take a longer view and there is a surprising amount that we can say withconsiderable  assurance. As so often, the past holds the key to the future: we have now identified enough of the long-term patterns shaping the history of the planet, and our species, to make evidence-based forecasts about the situations in which our descendants will find themselves.

considerable [kənˈsɪdərəbl]（出现6次）adj.相当大的，可观的，值得思考的

assurance [əˈʃʊrəns]（出现1次）n.保证，担保，人寿保险

identify [aɪˈdentɪfaɪ]（出现17次）v.识别，鉴别，找到，发现

pattern [ˈpætərn]（出现17次）n.模式，式样

shape（出现7次）v.塑造，成形

shape the history of（塑造...样的历史）

forecast [ˈfɔːrkæst]（出现3次）n/v.预测

descendant [dɪˈsendənt]（出现1次）n.后裔，子孙，衍生物

take a...view（采取...样的视角）

draw on（汲取）

但是，如果采取更长远的视角思考未来，我们便能对极多的事情做出相当确定的预测。正如通常情况那样，过去掌握着通向未来的钥匙，我们现在已经确定了足够多的地球以及人类历史何以形成的长期模式，使我们能够对子孙后代的生存环境做出有根据的预测。

This long perspective makes the pessimistic view of our prospects seem more likely to be a passing fad. To be sure, the future is not all rosy. But we are nowknowledgeable enough to reduce many of the risks that threatened the existence of earlier humans, and to improve the lot of those to come.

perspective [pərˈspektɪv]（出现7次）n.态度，观点，角度，思考方法，

pessimistic [ˌpesɪˈmɪstɪk]（出现2次）adj.悲观主义的

prospect [ˈprɑːspekt]（出现12次）n.前景，展望

fad [fæd] n.一时流行的狂热

rosy [ˈroʊzi] adj,美好的

knowledgeable [ˈnɑːlɪdʒəbl] adj.知识渊博的

这种长远视角使得对人类前景的悲观态度更像是一股短暂的风潮。诚然，未来并非一片光明。不过，我们已经拥有足够的知识，有能力降低曾经威胁前人生存的许多危险，并改善后人的命运。

31. Our vision of the future used to be inspired by _______.

[A] our desire for lives of fulfillment.

[B] our faith in science and technology.

[C] our awareness of potential risks.

[D] our belief in equal opportunity.

32. The IUCN’s “Red List” suggests that human beings are _______.

[A] a misplaced race.

[B] a sustained species.

[C] the world’s dominant power.

[D] a threat to the environment.

33. Which of the following is true according to Paragraph 5?

[A] The interest in science fiction is on the rise.

[B] Arc helps limit the scope of futurological studies.

[C] Technology offers solutions to social problems.

[D] Our immediate future is hard to conceive.

34. To ensure the future of mankind, it is crucial to _______.

[A] draw on our experience from the past.

[B] adopt an optimistic view of the world.

[C] explore our planet’s abundant resources.

[D] curb our ambition to reshape history.

35. Which of the following would be the best title for the text?

[A] Uncertainty about Our Future

[B] Evolution of the Human Species

[C] The Ever-bright Prospects of Mankind.

[D] Science, Technology and Humanity.

BBDAC